Tuesday, June 05, 2007

The Dogs of the Dow - Half Year Performance 2007

Previously, I talked about the dogs of the dow and how you could use that as a strategy. Below is an update for those that are interested in this investment strategy. The table includes the Dow component and it's year to date increase.

Please note that dividends are not re-invested, but are included in the rate of return.

As of June 4, 2007:

Pfizer5.8%
Verizon Communications15.9%
Altria-16.1%
AT&T19.2%
Citigroup0.0%
Merck18.5%
General Motors4.0%
General Electric0.3%
Dupont9.3%
Coca-Cola9.1%

The overall rate of return for the first 6 months was about 6.6%.
The overall gain for the Dow in the same period was roughly 9.3%.

There were 2 components in negative territory (Citigroup was slightly in the red and Altria was in the red by double digits).

Cheers!

Disclaimer:
  • I am not be liable for any investment decision made or action taken based upon the information on this page.
  • I suggest you check with a broker or financial adviser before making any stock investing decisions.
  • I am not offering financial advise, but rather commenting on widely available investment strategies.
  • Finally, Caveat emptor!

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Gold Stocks - Trade Idea Part 2

Last time, I talked about naked put selling on gold stocks that you wouldn't mind owning. Let's assume, following the earlier example, that at the end of May you are 'put' into Barrick Gold Corp because the stock traded lower than the strike price of the put options you wrote (i.e. $30 USD).

This means that you are now the proud owner of 500 shares of ABX. What can you do? You could hold the stock and hope it goes up or you could sell the stock for a slight loss (remember, it must be less than $30 because you were 'put' into the stock). Alternatively, you could write covered calls on the stock.

So, what is a 'call'? A call option is an agreement that gives an investor the right (but not the obligation) to buy a stock (or some other other financial instrument) at a specified price within a specific time period. If you sell someone the right to buy stock that you own, then this is a covered call.

Imagine now that you sell 5 call contracts that expire in one months' time at the $30 strike price. Imagine that each contract is trading at $0.75. This would mean that you would receive:
  • $0.75 x 500 or $375 for selling someone the right to buy your stock in one months' time!
If at the end of next month, the stock is trading below the strike price of $30, then you keep your stock and the $375 that you made on the call options. For argument's sake, if the stock is trading at $50, you are obligated to sell your stock for $30. In other words, if on the day of expiration for your call option, ABX is trading at any price over $30, you must deliver your stock for $30.

Let's assume now that for one year, you write naked put options for ABX, and when you are put into the stock you write covered calls. Moreover, when you called to deliver your stock, you write naked puts for the following month. In other words, every month that goes by, you either own ABX and sell covered calls, or don't own ABX and sell naked puts.

Let's also assume that your monthly premium on the option writing is approximately $0.85. Then each month, you generate about 500 x $0.85 or $425. For the year, you would generate about $5,100. Remembering that you had to initially have $15,000 in your account to cover the naked put options, you are looking at yearly rate of return of about 33%. Not too shabby!

Disclaimer:
  • I am not be liable for any investment decision made or action taken based upon the information on this page.
  • I suggest you check with a broker or financial adviser before making any stock investing decisions.
  • I am not offering financial advise, but rather commenting on widely available investment strategies.
  • Options trading can be extremely risky.
  • Finally, Caveat emptor!

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Gold Stocks - Trade Idea

Over the last year, I have benefited from one trading strategy involving gold stocks. First of all, I believe that gold will continue to rise, first as a hedge against inflation and second as a hedge against the falling us dollar.

With that said, it seems that gold stocks would be the place to be. My strategy is simple: write 'in the money' naked put options on gold stocks that I wouldn't mind owning for the amount of shares that I am willing to buy.

The seller of a put option has the obligation to buy shares in a company at a specified price at a certain time. In return for this obligation, a put seller gains a premium. Most gold companies are volatile, thus garnering larger premiums.

As an example, take Barrick Gold Corp (ABX on the NYSE; ABX on the TSX). Currently, this stock is trading at around $30 USD per share. Assuming that you thought this stock was going to follow the price of gold higher and that you wanted to buy 500 shares, then following the strategy above, you would:
  • sell 5 put contracts (uncovered) for the month of May for a premium of around $1 per contract
  • ensure that your account has enough money in it to finance the trade (in this example, $15,000)
Doing this, you would gain $500 (minus commissions) and come the third Friday of May, if the stock is trading less than $30, you are obliged to purchase 500 shares at $30 dollars. Otherwise, you keep the $500 and repeat the strategy the next month if you still are bullish on Barrick and the price of Gold.

Keep in mind that there are numerous gold producing companies out there, not just Barrick Gold and that those companies that exhibit wild fluctuations in daily share price, usually garner larger premiums.

Good luck.

Disclaimer:
  • I am not be liable for any investment decision made or action taken based upon the information on this page.
  • I suggest you check with a broker or financial adviser before making any stock investing decisions.
  • I am not offering financial advise, but rather commenting on widely available investment strategies.
  • Finally, Caveat emptor!